The Future's Not Ours to See, Or Is It?

The folks at the Pew Internet and American Life project, with help from Janna Quitney Anderson, Elon University, have examined what the Internet might look like in the future. In this December 14, 2008 report, the authors outline the results from a survey of more than 1,000 Internet specialists, critics, and analysts. Based on the responses, the following picture of what the Internet might look like in 2020 emerged:

• Mobile phones will be the way we connect to the Internet.
• Social tolerance will not grow as a result of the Web 2.0; in fact, these technologies may expand hate, bigotry, and intolerance.
• There will be advanced touch, talk, and typing options. A "thought-based" interface may be on the horizon too.
  
• IP law and copyright issues will remain problematic.
• There will be no distinction between personal and professional time.
• It is unlikely that a "next-gen" Internet system will be developed.
• Will more transparency make the world a better place? The results are mixed.
• More than half of the respondents think that virtual worlds will impact a large number of individuals, which means that a little less than half disagree. However, the consensus among the respondents is that virtual and augmented reality user interfaces will have to become more intuitive for there to be wide-spread adoption of these technologies.

In addition to these nuggets, the report also includes a series of quotes from respondents such as Howard Rheingold, Steve Jones, and Victoria Nash.

Adults, Video Games, and Contradictions

Pew just released a new report that focuses on adults and their video game playing activities. The data were collected October - December 2007 as part of a gadget survey. Information on video games is very popular, and it is surprising that it took Pew almost a year to process these results. This is a rapidly changing area, so I wonder whether the figures present an accurate assessment of the current population?

Regardless, the findings do represent at the minimum a snapshot in time of video games and the adults who play them. Here are some of the numbers:

• 53% of adults (age 18+) play video games. In fact, the 18-29 age bracket includes the largest percentage of game players.
• While the younger generations are more likely to play video games than older groups, the length of game play time increases with age.
• A slightly higher percentage of males play video games than females, 55% to 50% respectively.
• A higher percentage of students play game in comparison to non-students - 76% vs. 49%.
• Younger people prefer to play video games on consoles, whereas older individuals prefer games on a computer.
• Parents are more likely to play video games than non-parents.

Overall, the largest percentage of video game players are between the ages of 18-29, their estimated salary range is between $50,000 and $74,999, they have completed some college or are a college graduate, they are more likely to live in urban areas and be Internet users.

Questions: One question I have is related to the findings about virtual worlds. According to this Pew report, only 2% of gamers say they visit virtual worlds like Second Life (SL); 11% of teen game players responded that they have visited a virtual world. However, in an earlier Pew report on video games and teens, the percentage of teens visiting these worlds was 10%. A rounding error? The other numbers mentioned in the two reports match.

Next, Williams, Yee, and Caplan (2008) recently surveyed EverQuest (EQ) players. Their data from 7,000 participants suggests that the average of of game players is a little over 31 years of age. Stated another way, these researchers found that more players were over 30 than in their teens or in the college age range. So, are the game players younger or older? Like the current Pew study, however, Williams and his colleagues found that game play increases with age.

Another question deals with gender. The survey conducted by Williams et al. found that a large percentage of game players are male - 81% male in contrast to 19% female. The Pew findings were more balanced at 55% male and 50% female. Who's right? Or, is there a right answer? Is it possible to get an accurate assessment of video gamers given that it's difficult, if not impossible, to survey the entire population?

Virtual Learning Reports

There are a couple of new reports out on the topic of online learning in the K-12 arena. The first is titled, Learning Virtually: Expanding Opportunities. This is a report authored by the State Educational Technology Directors Association (SETDA), a non-profit, educational association for state technology directors. A few interesting tidbits detailed in this report include:

• Virtual learning is not a "silver bullet" or a "one-size-fits-all" solution.
  
• Currently, 44 states have virtual learning programs. This includes Michigan and Florida.
• 57% of public secondary schools provided access to students for online learning.
• 19% of school districts paid for a computer for all students and another 10% of
  districts provided a computer for some students.
• The Virtual High School (VHS) Advanced Placement research shows that on
  average students perform equally well or better in online learning.
  

The second report, Going Virtual! Unique Needs and Challenges of K-12 Teachers is the second phase of a three-part study series. A research team from Boise State University, led by Kerry Rice, with additional support from the North American Council for Online Learning (NACOL), is behind this initiative. Here are a few of the research findings:

• The overall workforce in online education consists of relatively experienced teachers. Fifty‐five percent of teachers have between six to fifteen years of total teaching experience, with 18% reporting 16 or more years of teaching experience.
• 72% have participated in ongoing training sessions in online teaching.
• Professional development needs rated as very important (rating of 4 on scale of 1‐4) included use of communication technologies (74%), time management strategies (62%), risks of academic dishonesty to learners (60%), and student internet safety (60%).
• Challenges expressed by participants included time management (n = 71), students taking responsibility for learning (n = 61), communication (n = 54), and their ability to learn and use technologies (n = 54).

In other virtual learning news this week, Inside Higher Ed is reporting that online courses are popular with students. However, administrators are finding that the more "traditional" models - ones sometimes used for correspondence courses completed by mail - are inadequate. For example, one instructor at the University of Iowa taught eight online courses and two face-to-face courses last year. His bonus for taking on this additional load was $120,000! This was on top of his salary. What are some alternative options? Wallace Loh, a provost at Iowa, mentions two: either support the faculty with pay/time/tech resources or create a centralized course creation department (in other words, become a course factory similar to the U. of Phoenix model).

Despite the financial rewards for teaching online courses at some institutions, there are administrators who find it difficult to recruit faculty to teach. Some faculty argue that teaching an online course takes more time and a different skill-set than preparing for one that takes place in the physical classroom. While these represent just a few of the challenges faced by administrators and faculty, in the end, both sides argue that they want faculty to be treated fairly.

Violence and Video Games

A new study posted today to Pediatrics examines the longitudinal effects of violent video games on the physical aggression levels of young players. The players under investigation were based in the U.S. and in Japan. In both locations, playing video games is a popular activity among young people (e.g., here and here). Anderson and his colleagues wanted to assess the impact exposure to violent video game had in high- (U.S.) and low- (Japan) violence cultures. Two samples included Japanese teens ages 12-18; the third sample included U.S. young people ages 9-12.

The findings suggest that habitual exposure to violent video games early in the school year predicted later physical aggression in the study participants. This was true for the U.S. (an individualistic culture and the two Japanese (a more collective culture) groups, but less so (but still significant) for the older teens. This contradicts an alternative hypothesis that only aggressive children are affected by repeat exposure to violent video games.

While extreme violence was rare among the participants of this study, the findings of the Anderson et al. study are important because, as these authors note, youth violence accounts for many deaths. As a Surgeon General's report on youth violence states, homicide is the leading cause of death for Blacks between the ages of 10-24, and the second leading cause of death for young Hispanics.

What does this mean for researchers who are using controversial games such as Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas for educational purposes? Much of this research is conducted with disadvantaged youth whose lives are filled with poverty, drug use, and violence. By adding a violent video game to the mix, are we as educators placing these young people in even more danger? While these games are appealing to students and may foster the acquisition of certain skills (literacy, technological, decision-making, etc.), are the potential risks worth it? As Anderson et al. contend, more research is needed. However, their findings thus far are enough to make educators approach the integration of violent video games into the curriculum with caution.

The Networked Family

Is technology bringing families closer together? Tracy Kennedy and her colleagues say "Yes." According to research conducted by Kennedy et al. (2008, October 19) for the Pew Internet and American Life project, today's family households have multiple technologies, and use these devices to stay in touch. This includes what Lee Rainie, director of the Pew project, calls "love taps." However, this form of connectedness does not always translate into face-to-face time. For example, the findings of this study suggest that busy, tech families are less likely to eat meals together and are not as likely to report satisfaction with their leisure time when compared to their less tech-connected counterparts.

Young people and IT

Last week, Pew released a report about the pervasiveness of video games in the lives of today's young people - Teens, Video Games, and Civics. An earlier Pew report, one that concentrated on the gaming activities of college students, suggeted that the percentages were high: 70% of college students played digital games at least once; 65% were regular players. The latest numbers suggest that playing video games is a part of everyday life for almost all young people in America.

Here are some of the current numbers:

• 99% of boys and 94% of girls play video games
• Younger boys are the most enthusiastic players; older girls are the least enthusiastic about these activities
• Gaming is a social activity - 65% of gaming teens play with other people who are physically in the same room
• Teens play video games with people they know
• Parents are more likely to monitor the game playing activities of boys and younger children
• 49% of teen players have seen "people being hateful, sexist, or racist" during their game play activities

This morning I read a piece by Linda Jackson and her group (2008) on the new digital divide and the role race and gender play in IT use. The researchers surveyed 515 children (172 African Americans; 343 Caucasian Americans) whose average age was 12 about their IT use. These researchers found the following:

• African American males were the least intense users
• African American females were the most intense users (often surpassing the male Caucasian Americans)
• African American females were more likely than Caucasian Americans to text message friends via cell phone
• Children whose parents had higher income and education levels had been using IT longer
• Children who had been using IT longer had higher grades in school; children who played video games more had lower grades in school

While African American males were less enthusiastic about IT in general, they were avid video game players. In fact, their game play levels were as high as the Caucasian American males. Thus, one of the recommendations the authors make is to utilize the African American males' game playing activities to increase their interest in IT.

This reminds me of an chapter by Kurt Squire (2008) that explored the possibility of using Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (GTA: SA) for educational purposes. In that study, Squire interviewed Caucasian and African American teens who were avid GTA: SA players. Based on his experiences with teens, Squire argues that "games could be an excellent bridging mechanism for disengaged students, particularly adolescent boys, many of whom are labeled ADHD and cause many problems at school" (p. 184).

Recent Pew Reports

On Monday night, two students and I were discussing the Pew readings for the week available here and here. One topic we discussed was calling landline phones to conduct surveys. Pew Research Center for the People & the Press has posted a short piece on the difference between cell phones and landlines in survey research. Because there is the possibility of bias when using landlines in survey research, Pew will be including cell phone samples in their election polls.

Another report that Pew launched yesterday (9/24/08) takes a look at networked workers, the technologies they use, and the impact those devices have on the lives of today's workers. For anyone who uses technology in their jobs, the results will not be surprising. Here's just a selected few from the report:

• 53% of American adults who say they're currently employed, 62% qualify as networked workers (Pew definition)
• Networked workers are more likely to own a cell phone, a desktop computer, a laptop, and a PDA.
• 80% of the respondents said the technology makes their lives easier
• 46% said that the technology increases the demands to work more hours
• 49% said the technology increases job-related stress
• 49% said that the technology makes it more difficult to "disconnect" from work and on weekends